He Said, She Said, Vol. 3: Adam Junglen vs. Patrik Antonius
History: Adam, sitting on Patrik's left, has been flat-calling and reraising Patrik for numerous rounds. He highly anticipates a large move from Patrik since Patrik is capable of just about anything.
Celina: There are many factors to consider throughout this hand due to how much the two players have tangled throughout the day, the amount of leveling and metagame that is going on here.
The Hand:
Blinds: 150/300 with a 25 ante.
Patrik's Stack: ~45,000
Adam's Stack: ~ 60,000
Adam holds A♣J♦, Patrik 5♠3♣
Preflop: It's folded around to Antonius on the cutoff. He raises to 1,000, Adam (on the button) three-bets to 3,200, the blinds fold, Patrik reraises to 9000, and Adam calls.
Flop: Q♣2♠4♣ (Pot 18,375)
Patrik moves all in for 34,475, Adam ponders, then calls.
Turn: 8
River: A [Antonius wins the pot with a wheel straight.]
Street by street analysis:
Preflop: It's folded around to Antonius on the cutoff. He raises to 1,000, Adam (on the button) three-bets to 3,200, the blinds fold, Patrik reraises to 9000, and Adam calls.
Tony: This street has been extensively debated on discussion forums. Adam, in his description of the hand, feels like it's much too big a waste of chips to simply move in preflop, but he feels like his hand is probably best since he anticipates Patrik four-betting an enormous range. I believe, based on Adam's read of Patrik and Patrik's reputation, that he is capable of making any form of highly aggressive play against an opponent is fighting back, he may be right. I agree that moving in preflop seems excessive, as he's effectively moving in for 150 big blinds, which is never getting called by a worse hand and when called against Patrik's likely calling range of J-J (and higher pairs), A-Qs and A-K, Adam only has 25% equity. I think Adam's call of the four-bet is correct since he's got position, likely has a better hand than Patrik's range, and has the potential to dominate the table if he cripples or busts Patrik.
Celina: Patrik Antonius plays a very loose-aggressive style which confuses his opponents post-flop and disguises his range of hands very well. Patrik's intention here is to steal the blinds and, in case one or both of the blinds defends, he will be able to play his hand optimally in position. Adam reraises with A-J, which he knows in most circumstances is the best hand. Patrik, true to his style, reraises knowing that Adam is capable of testing the authenticity of his preflop raise. Adam then decides to call here, probably thinking he is still ahead and opting to see a flop. I may have liked a reraise all in because now the pot is already 14K, and he still has fold equity against Patrik.
Flop: Q♣2♠4♣ (Pot 18,375)
Patrik moves all in for 34,475, Adam ponders, then calls.
Tony: A lot of people have called this an 'ego call'. I really disagree. I think when you slow down and think about Patrik's range, then Adam's call makes perfect sense. Here's the key: There's a bit under 20,000 in the pot and almost 35,000 left in effective stacks. Adam knows Patrik will almost never move in for such a substantial overbet with a hand that really wants a call. More likely, Patrik will bet an amount around 10,000 that gives Adam room to move in with a worse hand or even room to make a dangerous bluff. Either that, or Patrik will check-shove with a big hand, hoping to get maximum value from Adam. The board has a flush draw out, which is what Adam most likely puts Patrik on, and since Adam also has the A♣ he likely has Patrik down to 11-13 outs. It's a completely sick call that many commenters believe was an enormous spew, but I think it's the correct one.
Celina: Adam, knowing Patrik's game, would think that Patrik would have checked the flop if he has a queen, instead of overbetting the pot and going all in here. Adam thinks about what range of hands Patrik could be on, including a total bluff, a straight or club-flush draw and maybe a small pocket pair. Adam decided that his A-J is still ahead of most of Patrik's shoving range here, and he is getting the correct odds to call Patrik's all-in.
Turn: 8
River: A
Celina: Both players made each play with tremendous amount of careful thought. Patrik Antonius was indeed on a straight draw and Adam made the correct call, though Patrik caught one of his few outs on the river for the win. Both players played the hand well, but the hand as it unfolded might appear absolutely insane to someone who doesn't know the metagame of the two players involved.
Tony 'Bond 18' Dunst is a professional online poker player living in Australia. Dunst is one of the moderators of the strategy forum at the 2+2 forums, and is noted for his tongue-in-cheek recaps of big stories in the online poker world that he posts on 2+2 and pocketfives. Celina Lin is Tony's girlfriend and a good player in her own right. In fact, Celina has just signed on with PokerStars as a player/endorser, and will represent Team PokerStars at events all over the world. These two spend an incredible amount of time at home discussing poker hands. In each volume of this ongoing column, Dunst and Lin break down a hand and 'discuss' it in a way only a boyfriend and girlfriend can.
