Value Betting With Trip Aces on the River
DECISION POINT: In a live $1/$2 no-limit hold'em cash game, a player that limps speculative hands and raises good hands decides to limp from under the gun. It folds to the small blind who completes, then you raise from the big blind with A♥10♠. Both players call.
On the A♠4♠3♣ flop the SB checks, you bet, and both players call. The turn is the 9♣. The SB checks, you bet, UTG folds, and SB calls. It's heads-up to the A♦ river, and your opponent checks again. Action is on you.
PRO ANSWER: Against the capped preflop ranges of both Villains, betting both the flop and turn will be profitable both as a value bet and to deny equity.
On the river, we should be shoving for value against the small blind's range. We can assume our opponent can have nearly any A-x hand, but skewed away from A-K and A-Q as most players will raise with those hands preflop.
There are many more combos of A-x hands that we beat than A-x hands that have us beat. We are more likely to be shown one of the smaller aces (A-8, A-7, A-6, A-5, A-2) than A-J+ or a full house. We may get calls from hands like 9♠X♠ as well.
It's important to maximize value with our made hands. Recognizing Villain's capped preflop range makes this a very clear value bet.
Moving all in is the best play.
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