Pocket Queens on the Turn After a Flop Check-Raise
DECISION POINT: In a live $1/$2 no-limit hold'em cash game, a player sitting under the gun raises and you three-bet to $18 with Q♠Q♦. It folds back around to the UTG player who calls and then checks after the 4♥2♦J♥ flop. You continuation bet, your opponent check-raises, and you call. The turn is the 7♦ and your opponent checks again.
PRO ANSWER: We should bet on the turn when our opponent checks in this spot. We aren't that deep on the flop (the stack-to-pot ratio, or "SPR," is about 5), so an overpair is relatively strong on this board even after the check-raise.
Given that we three-bet preflop, our opponent can expect us to c-bet close to 100 percent of the time when they check on the flop. If they suspect we may be three-betting light preflop, the small flop check-raise may be an attempt to exploit this.
Of the hands we beat, they can easily have JxXx, backdoor diamonds, the heart draw, or various types of air. Against that range we should not give a free card.
Since our opponent regularly has a relatively small number of outs, we make the most profit by betting on the smaller side, perhaps around $50 into the $127 pot. We then should not fold if they move all in over our bet.
Betting is the best play.
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