Next Stop, Value Town: Recognizing When You Must Have the Best Hand
One of the most profitable situations to recognize in no-limit hold'em is when your opponent checks the river to you and you must have the best hand.
Not only does this situation give you license to bet whatever size you desire, it also maximizes the power of your position. Especially when up against an opponent who is unbalanced enough to make it clear when he checks that you are most certainly best, you can and should exploit the situation and player to earn maximum value.
Let's take a look at two quick examples of this very situation from hands I recently played online.
$30 Full Ring Freezeout
I raised with AxKx-offsuit from early position and received a call from the cutoff and another in the small blind. The flop fell Kx6x2x rainbow. It checked to me, I bet 40% of the pot, the cutoff folded, and the small blind check-raised nearly three times my bet.
In this situation, the small blind is essentially representing 6x6x or 2x2x, with the possibility of Kx6x-suited (though three of the four suits are eliminated thanks to the king and six on the board and the king in my hand).
I do not have much choice but to call the check-raise. After all I have top pair, top kicker with position on a dry board.
The turn then paired the 6x (and made Kx6x-suited impossible). My opponent bet again, 60% of the pot. I felt uneasy, but I am ahead often enough I felt calling was merited. I did, and awaited the river with some trepidation.
The river was an offsuit 8x. We had about a pot-sized bet left in the stacks and my opponent checked.
The simple question is: Would my opponent ever check 2x2x or Kx8x on this river?
Why would he? Players like to go all in, especially when they have strong hands and are out of position. They hate to see that they missed value, especially when it could have been for stacks. I have given no indication that I will be betting the river.
So in short, no. A brief survey of hand reading leads us to conclude that our hand is best, and nearly always.
In this instance, if my opponent overplayed KxXx, I want to play for it all. If he has a hand weaker than KxXx, it is probably a hand with flop backdoors like QxJx-suited or a gutshot like 5x4x that will never call regardless.
The result: I shoved and my opponent folded.
$15 Eight-Max Deepstack on the Bubble
We were very close to the exact bubble when I came in for a min-raise with AxJx-offsuit. I received a call from the big blind, a player who had me covered. The flop came Ax9x3x with a flush draw in clubs. I did not have a club. My opponent checked to me and I checked back.
The turn was the 3♥, bringing backdoor hearts. I did not have a heart either! The big blind bet 50% of the pot and I called.
The river was an offsuit 4x, and my opponent checked. The small blind had me covered twice over — in other words, if I doubled up here my opponent would still likely cash this tournament.
If my opponent had a 3x that turned into a value hand, AxXx with a better kicker, or Ax9x or Ax4x, he would simply bet again. I had checked the flop, then I merely called the turn with two flush draws on board. It looks like I am trying to get to showdown desperately because of the combination of the bubble and my weak hand — say something like 10x10x (it might appear).
Therefore, once again we have the best hand almost always here, nearly 100% of the time — and that gives us the option of shoving.
If my opponent has 9xXx or a weak ace like Ax2x, he will have the option to hero call. Otherwise if he has given up with a bluff, our sizing is mostly irrelevant.
The result? I shoved and my opponent tank-called with 7♥4♥ — a hand not dissimilar to 9xXx, though it maybe blocks some of my missed heart flush draws.
Hand Reading Is a Continual Practice
If you are playing against a tough opponent who checks the river to you, most of the time you should not be able to recognize immediately that you always have the best hand (unless you have the nuts).
Yet there are many spots you will find in online tournaments where this is exactly the case, even when you hold just one pair. Learn to recognize these spots, because when an opponent presents one to you, it is crucial you maximize your advantage.
