Hand Review: Accidentally Turning Two Pair into a Bluff
Covering live poker tournaments for a living affords me the opportunity to see countless thousands of hands played out, many of which offer interesting and potentially valuable insights into how players — both amateurs and professionals — play the game. In this ongoing series, I'll highlight hands I've seen at the tournaments I've covered and see if we can glean anything useful from them.
The Scene
After I won my World Series of Poker Circuit ring, I was excited to see if I could stay hot. I headed out to the Mid-States Poker Tour Meskwaki in Iowa for the $1,100 Main Event, and as it happened, I did make a deep run there to the final table.
With a couple of tables left in the event, I was the chip leader with around 900,000 — maybe we'll talk about how that happened in a future article — when I played a key pot against MSPT reg Matt Alexander (pictured above). A veteran with over $800,000 in cashes and two HPT titles to his name, Alexander and I have battled before. I'm used to his aggressive and splashy style and have had fun locking horns with him.
Generally, I think Alexander doesn't get too far out of line in the face of raises and bets, but he will open pretty liberally and push the action if nobody shows any strength postflop.
The Action
At 6,000/12,000/2,000, Alexander opened for 27,000 from the cutoff. I defended my big blind with 10♣6♠.
The flop came 6♦7♣3♥ and I checked. Alexander bet 20,000 and I called. The turn brought the 10♦. I checked again and Alexander bet 30,000. I shoved all in to put him to a decision for his last 170,000 or so. He tanked for several minutes, exchanging some banter with me before he folded 10x7x face up.
Concept and Analysis
This proved to be one of the stranger hands I've played in recent memory as I accidentally turned two pair into a bluff — and a successful bluff at that. You don't see that very often, so I thought I'd dive in and explain my decision-making.
First, I'd say defending 10♣6♠ is not usually something I'd do under most circumstances. I'd guess I probably under-defend the big blind, but I figured I was in a good spot to put a lot of pressure on the other players because I had so many chips and we were so close to the final table.
When I flop middle pair, I figure it's most likely the best hand, but check-calling seems to be the most prudent course of action. Alexander opens lots of hands from the cutoff and he could definitely hit this board.
When I hit one of my gin cards on the turn, things get interesting. I check and Alexander makes a very small bet of 30,000 into a pot of around 115,000. This bet didn't look much like an overpair to me. Someone with a big pair here should be looking to charge more, as any one-pair hand on this board likely has a straight draw as well, meaning it has nine outs at worst. This might well be the last chance for an overpair to get value as many river cards could kill his hand by bringing a four-straight on the board.
The bet also doesn't look like a bluff. Why would someone bet so small as a bluff after already being called on the flop? Nothing that called the flop is likely to fold turn to this sizing.
I admit I was quite confused by this bet. The two thoughts running through my mind were that it was either thin value with a medium pair or maybe it really was an overpair with weird sizing. I considered my options, but it just seemed best to shove. My hand was very likely best at the moment, and any diamond, any card that paired the board, plus anything that made four to a straight would hurt my hand's value.
Plus, he might put me on some type of pair-plus-draw hand, especially with diamonds hitting the board, and look me up with one pair. Looking at my range, many of my bluffs would include such hands in this spot.
I was very surprised to see him fold the hand he did. He said afterwards because of how comfortable I seemed while we chatted and the fact that I had to know he had something with his bet sizing, he felt very sure I was shoving for value. He was right, it just was a value hand worse than the one he held.
I do think from his perspective this hand is one that's a bit too strong to fold. Lower two pairs are quite tricky, but holding top two with so many draws on the board puts this hand in a strong position. His bet sizing leaves him room to be shoved on and is almost inducing something from an overeager chip-leading player. I'd probably just shove a straight or a set as well for the above reasons, but I think if you run into that, you just chalk it up to a cooler and take your payout.
