Fantasy NBA: DraftKings and FanDuel Value Plays for March 28
When it comes to daily fantasy sports (DFS), and basketball in particular, there's a lot of data out there that can help you make lineup decisions. One source of helpful data is FantasyLabs, an analytical sports resource site that features DFS projections as part of its stock of premium content.
FantasyLabs provides a wealth of data available at the fingertips of the DFS player to help identify top plays, save time in building multiple lineups, and look at where the value is in a given slate of games based on factors ranging from projected ownership to simple projected points per dollar. Players can even tweak the model based on what they weight to be the most important factors, and the FantasyLabs model will spit out a rating for the individual user that ranks players based on his or her preferences. There's also up-to-the-minute news scrolling in a sidebar that makes it easy to follow breaking injury reports.
We're going to provide a sampling for free right here on PokerNews Sports. Each day this recurring article runs, we'll go over three of FantasyLabs' top value plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel using the premium projections. We'll take a look at why these players could represent value and show you what FantasyLabs expects out of them statistically.
All stats are projected totals at the time of writing. Ceiling and floor represent the top 15 percent and bottom 15 percent of a player's projected outcomes, respectively.
FanDuel Value Plays
| Player | Price | Minutes | Proj. Points | Ceiling | Floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG Ish Smith (DETvsMIA) | $4,500 | 25.4 | 21 | 36 | 12.5 |
Reggie Jackson has already been announced out for Tuesday as the Pistons look to solidify Smith as the team's starting PG. The projections don't yet reflect this fact, so expect Smith to see north of 30 minutes when game time finally rolls around. He got 35 minutes against the Knicks and posted 15-6-5, more than enough to soar past his value at this piddling salary. Play him nightly until he gets priced appropriately, especially in cash.
| Player | Price | Minutes | Proj. Points | Ceiling | Floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG Tyler Ulis (PHO@ATL) | $6,000 | 36.8 | 27.7 | 42.3 | 15.1 |
While DraftKings has aggressively priced Ulis up in response to his new role as the unquestioned starter in Phoenix, his price is still lagging on FanDuel at $6,000. He's coming off another 41-minute outing, making it five of the past six where the Kentucky product has seen north of 40 minutes. Whether Ulis can handle this heavy of a load is an important question, but there's no choice but to keep rolling him out at this price.
| Player | Price | Minutes | Proj. Points | Ceiling | Floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG Lou Williams (HOUvsGSW) | $4,600 | 24.7 | 21.2 | 33.7 | 10.4 |
Without a doubt the polar opposite of the previous two plays, who should be quite safe, Williams represents the ultimate boom-or-bust fantasy asset and should only be deployed in GPPs. Taking a look at his recent games, it isn't hard to see why — four useless games are sandwiched between a pair of 39+ FD point explosions. An up-tempo matchup with the Warriors fits Williams' strengths perfectly, so roll the dice here.
DraftKings Value Plays
| Player | Price | Minutes | Proj. Points | Ceiling | Floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG Stephen Curry (GSW@HOU) | $9,400 | 33.9 | 44.3 | 56.6 | 26 |
Curry is priced quite affordably here in a matchup where he's going to get a ton of looks, especially if the Warriors get out and run against the Rockets. The Warriors have been winning games quite comfortably recently, resulting in a little less minutes for Curry, but he could be back over 35 here in what should be a competitive matchup with an early line of Rockets -1.5. Curry should be good for both cash and GPPs in what should be a fantasy bonanza.
| Player | Price | Minutes | Proj. Points | Ceiling | Floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG Ricky Rubio (MIN@IND) | $7,400 | 32.5 | 37.1 | 48.1 | 18.4 |
Rubio is another volatile asset who likely shouldn't be deployed in cash games but has a huge upside here for GPPs. He's priced down about $500 from the last couple of games, but the poor defense of Jeff Teague offers an inviting target in this road matchup with the Pacers. Rubio showed off his 50-point upside just two games ago, and even his 28 DK point performance in the last outing came in just 25 minutes played. As long as he sees normal minutes, he's priced to buy here.
| Player | Price | Minutes | Proj. Points | Ceiling | Floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Clint Capela (HOUvsGSW) | $5,400 | 24.4 | 25.6 | 37.9 | 12.8 |
Another player who could benefit from the fast-paced Warriors/Rockets tilt is Capela. The Warriors represent a very juicy matchup for him as long as the ground-bound Zaza Pachulia is on the court. He'll have a tough time contending with Capela's rim runs and strong rebounding. Draymond Green will present a tougher challenge, but Capela should rack up fantasy points for as long as he's on the court here. He's a good candidate for 30+ and could hit 40 if things go well.
Want to see all of today's top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel? Try FantasyLabs' premium tools!
