Fantasy NBA: DraftKings and FanDuel Value Plays for March 1
When it comes to daily fantasy sports (DFS), and basketball in particular, there's a lot of data out there that can help you make lineup decisions. One source of helpful data is FantasyLabs, an analytical sports resource site that features DFS projections as part of its stock of premium content.
FantasyLabs provides a wealth of data available at the fingertips of the DFS player to help identify top plays, save time in building multiple lineups, and look at where the value is in a given slate of games based on factors ranging from projected ownership to simple projected points per dollar. Players can even tweak the model based on what they weight to be the most important factors, and the FantasyLabs model will spit out a rating for the individual user that ranks players based on his or her preferences. There's also up-to-the-minute news scrolling in a sidebar that makes it easy to follow breaking injury reports.
We're going to provide a sampling for free right here on PokerNews Sports. Each day this recurring article runs, we'll go over three of FantasyLabs' top value plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel using the premium projections. We'll take a look at why these players could represent value and show you what FantasyLabs expects out of them statistically.
All stats are projected totals at the time of writing. Ceiling and floor represent the top 15 percent and bottom 15 percent of a player's projected outcomes, respectively.
FanDuel Value Plays
| Player | Price | Minutes | Proj. Points | Ceiling | Floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG Rodney Hood (UTAvsMIN) | $4,100 | 28.1 | 19.1 | 28.5 | 7.8 |
Hood has been a huge disappointment this season as he has struggled through injuries and rarely, if ever, been 100 percent. He seems to be getting his sea legs back though, with 21+ FD points in two straight after a solid 18-point effort against the Thunder. Most importantly, he's clocking almost starter-level minutes again with an average of 29 in those past two games. Minnesota's 23rd-ranked defense offers an inviting target, so take advantage while Hood is still priced near rock bottom.
| Player | Price | Minutes | Proj. Points | Ceiling | Floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF Robert Covington (PHI@MIA) | $7,300 | 37.1 | 35.7 | 41.2 | 20.8 |
The Sixers roster is in flux after trading Nerlens Noel and losing Joel Embiid to yet another injury. They've tried Jahlil Okafor at C and he's been putrid, so low-usage Richaun Holmes is taking a bunch of the clock. Covington has filled the void on offense and become the primary option. Crazy as that may sound, it's going quite well for Covington, who has proven himself a five-category threat with 50 fantasy point upside. The Heat aren't the best matchup, but Covington is still priced too low here.
| Player | Price | Minutes | Proj. Points | Ceiling | Floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Nikola Vucevic (ORLvsNYK) | $7,400 | 30.5 | 34.1 | 45.9 | 19.5 |
Speaking of guys who have benefited from trades, the loss of Serge Ibaka has cleared up some room in the frontcourt for Vucevic to retake his old role as the primary rebounder and frontcourt scorer for the Magic. He's had over 37 FD points and taken 35 shots total the past two games. Not many teams are playing worse then the Knicks right now, who rank 25th in defense, so Vucevic should have his way and notch another double-double here.
DraftKings Value Plays
| Player | Price | Minutes | Proj. Points | Ceiling | Floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Brook Lopez (BKN@SAC) | $6,500 | 31.9 | 36.3 | 49.4 | 21.1 |
How does a guy averaging 35.5 DK points per game get priced at $6,500 in a premium matchup against a bottom-10 defense that also rebounds poorly? Three sub-30 efforts in the past four games will put a damper on anyone's price, but especially a player on the ultra-volatile Nets. It's always a massive risk to rely on anyone from this team since they can get blown out so easily and minutes seem to fluctuate massively. However, this matchup and price can't be ignored, and Sacramento isn't likely to blow anyone out. They might just be worse than Brooklyn at this point.
| Player | Price | Minutes | Proj. Points | Ceiling | Floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF Taurean Prince (ATLvsDAL) | $3,400 | 25 | 18.4 | 29.15.7 |
The wing situation is pretty crowded in Atlanta, but one of the reasons the team moved Kyle Korver was it felt it had something in Taurean Prince, who is picking up solid minutes with 25+ in four of the past five games. He had a virtuoso performance with 33 DK points in the win over Boston and that one followed a 20 DK point game. Both of those came at the minimum price, but DraftKings finally adjusted a bit and inched Prince up to $3,400. He's still a potential bargain if he plays 25 minutes again, and barely anyone will own him in GPPs.
| Player | Price | Minutes | Proj. Points | Ceiling | Floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN@UTA) | $10,000 | 38.6 | 50.9 | 63.5 | 32.2 |
Towns is playing some truly special basketball right now and has taken complete command of this team since Zach LaVine went down injured. He has hit 53+ DK points in each of the past four games and absolutely demolished the Kings for 29 and 17 the last time out. A matchup with Utah is much more difficult but Towns' price has that already factored in as he's the cheapest he's been since before the All-Star break. He's a great play for GPPs as almost everyone will want to avoid this matchup, but Towns has made the case that he's matchup proof.
Want to see all of today's top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel? Try FantasyLabs' premium tools!
